In one week millions will head to the polls in what already has proven to be one of the most important off year elections in decades.
While everyone agrees that Drain Commissioner is probably the most important and sexy political job in the world, this year there are a couple of other interesting jobs and questions on the ballot.
In New York voters will decide if Hizzoner, Michael Bloomberg, is deserving of a third term. Conventional wisdom favors Bloomberg, even though most New Yorkers don’t. In the end, he will win, because he is rich and a Jew. And as we know, Jews make good politicians.
Constituents in the 23rd Congressional District will elect a new representative to replace the seat vacated by now Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed by Governor Paterson to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. While some polls favor the Democrat, there are many conflicting reports about who will win out in the 23rd. Conservatives may get their ass hats handed to them this November 3 when the Democrat wins.
In New Jersey, those voters not barred from voting due to their entanglements with The Sopranos, will decide which is worse, Corzine or Cristie. Once again, odds seem to favor Corzine, even though you wouldn’t think looking at the polls.
In Virginia, the quadrennial election of a new governor seems to be favoring the Republican. However I do think it will be closer than anyone realizes. But I do think the Republican will win out, whoever the hell he is.
Residents of Washington will decide if they need to protect opposite everything but marriage from the gay. Because of quirks in the ballot process–you have to vote no to void everything but marriage–and the high number of absentee ballots already returned, I predict Referendum 71 will pass by a sizable margin. No matter how many smoke rings my puki pal blows up your ass, it seems the country is not turning conservative. Time will tell, but I do believe Washingtonians will be getting everything but married all over the place.
Finally, the big kahuna of all the ballot questions is Proposition 1 in Maine. Voters will decide if they will permit gay marriage. Polls only agree this that is very tight. If history is any predictor, it does not look good for the gay. In the last 32 contests, gay marriage only won a single time in Arizona, only to be defeated two years later. But if history is any predictor, it does not look good for the homophobes. With each passing year, support for gay marriage grows by 2 points.
But what is most important is what is happening right now in Maine and how they got here in the first place. After gathering more than 100,000 signatures to get the question on the ballot, the group opposing gay marriage almost didn’t make the cut of 55,000. Not a good start. Next, being an off year, there are some really great questions on the ballot, like something about a school and signatures, or whatever. Add to that the fact that the state was swamped for absentee ballots does not bode well for gay marriage foes.
Absentee ballots are overwhelmingly skewed toward Democrats and liberals, it seems that they may be voting in record numbers. Old people like voting in person, because, let’s face it, they have no one to talk to, and they get off touching a ballot. Old women still think they are flaunting their sexuality, thinking the 20th Amendment has just passed thanks to their Alzheimer’s.
But add to this the unknown of the weather. The forecast says that it will be sunny on Tuesday in Maine. But what if it isn’t? Old people tend to stay in when it rains, snows, sleets, or there is more than a 5 mph breeze. Those lukewarm on the whole gay marriage thing may just say “fuck it” and stay home. Those who have skin in the game will show up and vote.
Finally, there is the problem with the question. In order to allow gay marriage, you must vote No on Proposition 1. Old people reading the question will vote No, thinking they are banning gay marriage. Double negatives are the bane of the old and dumb.
I am going to go out on a limb here. I think Proposition 1 will fail.
In one week we will all know. Blanca will be in Washington State trying to trick people into denying the homos their rights. If I succeed, I will move on to Alabama, where I intend to deny black people their right to vote.
Next stop California, where I am already stoked about a measure to ban divorce in 2010!
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Huh?